According to a recent report by Singapore-based 10X Research, retail investors have lost around $17 billion while attempting to gain indirect exposure to Bitcoin through companies such as Metaplanet and Michael Saylor’s Strategy. Meanwhile, new shareholders collectively overpaid by about $20 billion for that access.
These losses stemmed from inflated share premiums, which allowed the companies to sell their stock at prices well above the underlying value of their crypto holdings. When those premiums collapsed amid a broader market downturn, individual investors were left facing substantial losses.
The business model behind many of these firms was straightforward: sell shares at a markup relative to their net asset value (NAV), use the excess capital to buy more Bitcoin, and repeat the cycle. According to the study, Metaplanet’s $1 billion Bitcoin investment once propelled its market cap to $8 billion — before it plunged to $3.1 billion, despite holding $3.3 billion worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet.
“Shareholders lost $4.9 billion in market value, while the company managed to accumulate $2.3 billion in Bitcoin — a result that still deserves some credit,” the researchers noted.
The shrinking gap between stock prices and actual asset values is raising concerns. In its Friday report, “After the Magic: How Bitcoin Treasury Firms Must Evolve Beyond NAV Illusions,” 10X Research highlighted that Strategy’s shares now trade at just 1.4 times the value of its Bitcoin reserves, compared to the triple or quadruple premiums seen earlier this year. For context, Michael Saylor previously described spending $1.5 billion on Bitcoin as a pursuit of “economic immortality.”
“The era of financial magic for Bitcoin-focused companies is coming to an end,” the report concludes. “But the smartest digital asset firms (DATs) can still deliver 15–20% annual returns.”
The analysts suggest that companies holding Bitcoin in their treasuries must abandon the inflated NAV model and transition toward a structure similar to arbitrage-based asset managers. While this shift may limit short-term upside from Bitcoin’s price swings, adaptability will be key to sustaining profitability in the evolving crypto investment landscape.
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